Som de flesta har förstått vid det här laget skulle det vara katastrofalt för tyska och franska banker, som sitter på flera miljarder i grekiska statspapper.
Detta rimmar bra med det som förre chefen för Bundesbank, Karl Otto Pöhl, säger i en intervju för Spiegel för drygt en vecka sedan med, där han är oerhört frispråkig. Han säger ungefär vad jag och min bloggrannar misstänkt hela tiden. Bland annat säger han att "räddningspaketet" för Grekland egentligen handlade om att rädda franska och tyska banker samt rika greker. Talet om risk för dominoeffekt ser han som ett svepskäl. Han anser att det är sannolikt att politikerna uppfann "de onda spekulanterna" för att legitimisera ett brott mot EU-fördragen och ECB:s regler. Pöhl anser vidare att Grekland aldrig borde ha fått gå med i eurosamarbetet till att börja med och att när misstaget att ta med dem väl var gjort borde EU redan för ett halvår sedan borde ha sagt att Greklands statsskuld behövde "omstruktureras". Ett litet land som Grekland utan någon exportindustri att tala om kan aldrig betala tillbaks 350 miljarder euro.
Så här säger Pöhl om Grekland och euron.
Pöhl: No, no, we have not gone that far quite yet. In my opinion, the euro is in no danger. Perhaps one of the smaller countries will have to leave the currency union.Han utesluter alltså inte att Grekland skulle tvingas lämna eurosamarbetet, men tror att de håller sig kvar så länge de får dessa trevliga lukrativa stödpaket.
SPIEGEL: How should that work?
Pöhl: It would involve Greece, if we stick with the case we were discussing, reintroducing the drachma.
SPIEGEL: But Greece doesn't seem to have any interest in doing that -- and it would be against European agreements to force Athens to leave the currency union.
Pöhl: That is correct. As long as a country receives such massive support, it would, of course, have no interest in turning its back on the euro.
SPIEGEL: You think that could change?
Pöhl: On the mid and long term, I wouldn't rule it out.
Det är alltså denna genomkorrumperade politiskt styrda valuta som Folkpartiet vill att Sverige ska ansluta sig till.
[Andra bloggar om euro, grekland]
Inlägg
Egentligen så spelar det väl ingen roll? Tyskland och Frankrike behöver bara genom en krisåtgärd ge ett undantag på kapitaltäckning/göra en tillfällig insättning för de hårdast drabbade bankerna och lägga krav om minimi-marginal på utlåning för alla?
SvaraRaderaEgentligen så borde dem dragit åt bromsen för längesen men jag försöker tänka i banor om som vad är den bästa åtgärd de faktiskt skulle kunna vidta.
Sverige drabbades ungefär lika hårt som Tyskland och Frankrike skulle drabbas, skriv ner skulden med 40%, bjud på en kapitalinjektion i de banker som drabbas hårdare lägg krav om minimimarginal på utlåning och där räddades finanssektorn. Därefter går man ner och tar tillbaka vinsterna från bankerna och delar ut dem till folket i sann kommunistisk anda.
Alla partier som stödjer Euron bör man verkligen ta på stort allvar och inse vilken risk dom är för Sveriges framtid.
SvaraRaderaEn global värld kräver globala storstilade lösningar. Politikerna kommer sannolikt att fortsätta på den inslagna vägen ett bra tag till. De vet att det privata kapitalet behöver denna politik. I samma båt liksom.
SvaraRaderaHar jag fattat det hela rätt? Är det så att Grekland lånar pengar av tex Frankrike och Tyskland och betalar tillbaka (med ränta) av pengar de får av ECB (Europas bank)? Det måste väl isåfall vara en ganska "fiffig" lösning för Fr och Ty. De två sistnämnda länderna klarar sig medan resten av ECB:s länder är med och betalar kalaset.
SvaraRaderaJag vill passa på att inflika att ett troy ounce guld kostade mindre än 300 euro 1999 när valutan var ny. Det torde säga en hel del om hur ECB sköter sitt viktigaste uppdrag att bevara valutans köpkraft.
SvaraRaderaGuldnisse. En del av prisuppgången borde ju kunna förklaras av att total ekonomisk aktivitet (BNP) ökat snabbare än tillgången till guld. Vet du hur har relationen mellan real BNP i Euro-zonen och total global tillgång på guld förändrats över det senaste decenniet?
SvaraRaderaUS based credit agencies such as Standard and Poor have capitalized on the Euro crisis to orchestrate an attack on the Euro. The aim is to put European states at the mercy of big business and banks and destroy social spending and Europe's welfare state.
SvaraRaderaI wonder Flute, do you think the Krona is necessarily safe in the long term though? When big business and banks turn their sights on destroying the Swedish social system, will it not orchestrate a similar attack on the Krona and Swedish economy?
My question for you is, won't small isolated currencies like the Krona, Pound etc be much more vulnerable to an attack by big business in the future than big ones like the Euro?
I'm sure the Euro will survive for now but I'm not so sure a smaller currency would under such an attack.
Nick, I don't agree with you. S&P's and the other rating agencies haven't been orchestrating any attack on the euro. The eurozone is imploding under the weight of its own problems and mismanagement.
SvaraRaderaIf I were to criticize S&P's, Moody's and Fitch for anything it would be the fact that they have waited far too long before downgrading Greece and other highly indebted states. It should have been obvious to anyone long ago that Greece's sovereign debt is far too large.
But the rating agencies are notorious for their belated responses to financial problems of borrowers. Remember Enron? They had an investment grade rating until just a few days before they went bankrupt. What a joke!
Big business and banks don't have any interest in destroying social systems or welfare states. All they want to do is get a good return on their investments.
That's why it's so important to have well managed public finances.
Borrowing money for public spending is not a human right. States have to learn to live within their means. Therefore the current path of e.g. the UK is unsustainable and will eventually lead to them being cut off from international lending.
As for the krona - as long as we have a government that makes responsible budgets I consider it pretty safe. However, if our banks get into trouble and the Swedish government decides to bail them out, the krona is f***ed.
Some good points Flute especially about Enron.
SvaraRaderaHowever, isn't it possible though that no matter how well managed a country's finances are, its currency can be severely devalued or brought down by speculation or investors "shorting" it?
Also, isn't the bailout scenario you fear a distinct possibility because of all the debt owed to Swedish banks by Eastern European banks? There was much talk about this risk a while back but I haven't heard anything about it for a while so I'm presuming the worst is now over?
Nick:
SvaraRaderaIt's very hard to short the currency of a country with well managed finances, because you would have to fight against all the investors who were "long" that country and would see any dip as a buying opportunity. It would be like shorting stocks in the middle of a stock market rally = rapid giant loss.
No sensible market player would take the risk to "short" Sweden unless our finances turned bad (e.g. like around 1992). And only sensible players have enough money to drive markets.
But as you say there is a risk that Sweden could be hit by financial troubles, since some of our banks have lent too much money to the Baltic states. Latvia's economy is far from saved, although they are currently not at the centre of the financial world's attention. A Baltic crisis together with a popped Swedish housing bubble could very well bring down some of our banks. The key factor which would then decide our future would be if and to what extent the state would bail out the failed banks.
Thanks for explaining.
SvaraRaderaIt seems that Latvia may well be out of the worst according to yesterday's news:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-02/latvian-premier-dombrovskis-says-economy-may-be-improving.html
So I guess as you mention, the housing bubble is the only serious perceivable immediate threat to the Swedish economy and Krona at this time.
But the housing bubble is enormous.
SvaraRaderaFor how long do you think the central bank will be able to control interest rates? I think that something like a spike in fuel (or food) prices may be what causes the housing bubble to burst, as many people cannot even handle a 5% mortgage rate.